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Multivariate Classification of extreme rainfall and discharge events in northern hemispheric latitudes and model-based estimates for the 21st century (already finished)


Concerning “Global Climate Change” it is of special importance how far particular properties of extreme events will change during the next decades. Extreme precipitation is a prominent example. For individual regions there might be small-scale varieties, which can only be derived by indirect means from large-scale GCM output (General Circulation Models, grid point distances several hundred km). In that respect, deriving regional precipitation from large-scale GCM data (so-called downscaling) has to be critically assessed, since relationships between regional precipitation (spatial scale of Central Europe or smaller areas) and ‘Großwetterlage’ (i.e. pressure fields on a continental scale) are marked by considerable instationarities.
Consequently and in contrast to that, analysing fronts and convective conditions of regional to local dimensions is the starting point of this project. A fundamental advantage could be that fronts and convective phenomena cover areas comparable in extent to those being affected by resulting precipitation and runoff. Based on that, output of the atmosphere-ocean GCM ECHAM4 (Hamburg) can be used for more consistent estimations of 21st century’s precipitation variability.

Scientists