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VADY - Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics



Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics (VADY) in the framework of MiKlip (medium-range climate prediction)

The current method of long-term climate projection is the development of global climate models lasting for a period until 2100, confer e.g. emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, with many planning decisions concerning politics, economy and society commonly lasting for a period of ten years, there is a growing need for global climate models with a timeframe of decades.

The project medium-range climate prediction (MiKlip) supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany has 'the aim to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal forecasts on climate and weather, including extreme weather events' (see homepage:). Representing an important part of the development process, the model validation (module E within the project) is competent to provide a comparison of modelling and observation, a quantification of the model uncertainties, a reliable review of the forecast results and the possibility for a direct comparison between results of different model simulations.

The research project Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics (VADY) initiated by the cooperation partners University of Augsburg and the German Aerospace Center (DLR) make a contribution to the proposal. The DLR validates the representation of atmospheric wave activity on different spatial scales and in different atmospheric layers, whereas the University of Augsburg emphasizes on atmospheric circulation types, dynamical modes and the teleconnectivity of the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, dynamical modes of the atmospheric circulation are to compute and to correlate based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) both for reanalysis data and for initial MiKlip-model runs to state the quality of the developed model system. During the project tools created for validation as well as the MiKlip-model system itself are to be improved by an iterative feedback process including additional parameters (atmospheric circulation types, large-scale teleconnectivity, circulation-climate relationships including near-surface climate like precipitation and temperature etc.).

Scientists