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  • PACLIMBA - PArticulate Matter and CLIMate Change in BAvaria Dr. C. Beck Prof. Dr. J. Jacobeit Dipl. Geogr C. Weitnauer ()

    Near-ground concentrations of particulate matter with a particle distribution of a median aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm (PM10) have been identified to affect public health. It is furthermore known that the extent of natural and anthropogenic emissions of these air pollutants, the level of precursor emissions as well as local meteorological conditions and large-scale circulation dynamics are significant factors affecting local concentrations of these fine particles. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate potential impacts of future climat change scenarios on local PM10 concentrations for the purpose to provide an important basis for air pollution mitigation and adaptation strategies.

    Whereas the quantitative relationship between local meteorological and large-scale circulation parameters on the one hand and local PM10 concentrations on the other hand has been proven in several studies so far, there is no systematic attempt – especially for Germany - to transfer these conncetions on projections of climate change model simulations in order to estimate tendencies of future PM10 pollution levels.

    Within the framework of the research project „PArticulate Matter an CLIMate Change in BAvaria (Germany)“ (PACLIMBA) the quantitative link between meteorological influencing factors on different scales and local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria (Germany) on basis of measured and reanalysis data sets is realized by using varying approaches of the so called statistical downscaling. After validating the generated statistical models, selected suitable approaches will be reapplied on control and scenario runs of different global climate models to estimate potential PM10 variations in Bavaria due to future climate change in the 21st century.

  • WETRAX - WEather Patterns, Cyclone TRAcks and related precipitation EXtremes Prof. Dr. J. Jacobeit Dr. A. Philipp Dr. C. Beck Dipl. Geogr. M. Homann ()
    Excessive large-scale precipitation events are linked with a high occurrence probability of extreme flooding events and can be related to certain atmospheric circulation patterns.

    WETRAX investigates circulation patterns that are - in a statistically significant way - connected to extreme precipitation events in the area of Austria and southern Germany. Concerning relationships between large-scale circulation types and regional impacts, a catalog with excessive precipitation events, according to different weather types and storm tracks of cyclones is designed for the 1951-2010 period. Furthermore two different generations of global climate models are evaluated with respect to their ability to reproduce these atmospheric characteristics over the central European region. On the basis of respective climate scenarios estimates of future heavy precipitation events under enhanced greenhouse warming conditions are derived.

    The superordinate objective of WETRAX is the circulation based determination of the changed likelihood of excessive large-scale precipitation events in the region of Austria und southern Germany under future climate change conditions. This results in a potential change of flood risks within the watersheds of the investigation area. The derived results will provide an important basis for the planning of national water management strategies.

  • VADY - Validierung der Atmosphärischen DYnamik Prof. Dr. J. Jacobeit ()
    The current method of long-term climate projection is the development of global climate models lasting for a period until 2100, confer e.g. emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, with many planning decisions concerning politics, economy and society commonly lasting for a period of ten years, there is a growing need for global climate models with a timeframe of decades.

    The project medium-range climate prediction (MiKlip) supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany has 'the aim to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal forecasts on climate and weather, including extreme weather events' (see homepage:). Representing an important part of the development process, the model validation (module E within the project) is competent to provide a comparison of modelling and observation, a quantification of the model uncertainties, a reliable review of the forecast results and the possibility for a direct comparison between results of different model simulations.

    The research project Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics (VADY) initiated by the cooperation partners University of Augsburg and the German Aerospace Center (DLR) make a contribution to the proposal. The DLR validates the representation of atmospheric wave activity on different spatial scales and in different atmospheric layers, whereas the University of Augsburg emphasizes on atmospheric circulation types, dynamical modes and the teleconnectivity of the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, dynamical modes of the atmospheric circulation are to compute and to correlate based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) both for reanalysis data and for initial MiKlip-model runs to state the quality of the developed model system. During the project tools created for validation as well as the MiKlip-model system itself are to be improved by an iterative feedback process including additional parameters (atmospheric circulation types, large-scale teleconnectivity, circulation-climate relationships including near-surface climate like precipitation and temperature etc.).

  • Regional climate change in the mediterranean Prof. Dr. Jucundus Jacobeit ()
    Within the scope of projecting future climate change, General Circulation Models (GCMs) are commonly used to assess changes resulting from further increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques are developed to infer regional to local information below the skilful scale of the GCMs.

    Statistical downscaling approaches are based on statistical relationships linking a set of large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors) to regional climate variables (predictands) during an observational period. In this regard validation of the statistical models is of utmost importance: the established statistical relationships are verified during a period independent from the calibration period and are subsequently used to predict the future response of regional climate to climate model changes of the large-scale variables. Despite the extensive efforts to measure and evaluate performance of statistical downscaling models, little attention has been paid so far to the handling of non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships.

    The present project aims to introduce a novel downscaling approach which explicitly takes non-stationarities into account. For the illustration of this approach the Mediterranean area is chosen, because it shows a wide range of different climatic characteristics, from humid conditions in the western, northern and eastern Mediterranean regions in winter to arid conditions in the southern and eastern Mediterranean regions in summer.

    This research project is funded by the German Research Foundation DFG.

  • COST Aktion VALUE Dr. A. Philipp Dr. C. Beck ()
    Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. The COST Action VALUE (2012-2015) provides a European network to validate and develop downscaling methods and improves the collaboration between the dispersed research communities and with stakeholders.

    VALUE will deliver an assessment of end-user needs, a benchmark data set and pseudo reality for the validation, a set of validation measures, the validation of state-of-the-art methods and guidelines for stakeholders. It will guide the development of improved regional climate change scenarios for Europe and thereby be relevant for European societies and politics.

    VALUE consists of 5 working groups. The team of the chair for Physical Geography and Quantitative Methods, University of Augsburg is involved in working groups 3 and 4. Working group 3 addresses spatial and temporal variability and inter-variable relationships. Within working group 4 extremes are considered.

    For further information please visit http://www.value-cost.eu/