Rauch, M., Bliefernicht, J., Laux, P., Salack, S., Waongo, M., Kunstmann, H. (2019) Seasonal Forecasting of the Onset of the Rainy Season in West Africa, Atmosphere, doi: 10.3390/ATMOS10090528

Auszug aus dem Abstract:

„Seasonal forecasts for monsoonal rainfall characteristics like the onset of the rainy seasons (ORS) are crucial for national weather services in semi-arid regions to better support decision-making in rain-fed agriculture. In this study an approach for seasonal forecasting of the ORS is proposed using precipitation information from a global seasonal ensemble prediction system. It consists of a quantile–quantile-transformation for eliminating systematic differences between ensemble forecasts and observations, a fuzzy-rule based method for estimating the ORS date and graphical methods for an improved visualization of probabilistic ORS forecasts. The performance of the approach is tested for several climate zones (the Sahel, Sudan and Guinean zone) in West Africa for a period of eleven years (2000 to 2010), using hindcasts from the Seasonal Forecasting System 4 of ECMWF....“

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