What Vulnerable Island Nations Need for Climate Adaptation
A Study by the University of Augsburg Examines Material Requirements for Coastal Protection and Land Reclamation in the Maldives
Small island states are among the regions most severely affected by the consequences of climate change. Rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal erosion are making protective measures increasingly urgent. A new study by the University of Augsburg and the University of Waterloo now uses the Maldives as a case study to show the quantities of materials required for such measures—and the resulting long-term implications for resource needs, dependence on imports, and future planning. The Maldives are located in the Indian Ocean and are among the most vulnerable island nations in the world. Many of the islands lie just above sea level. To protect themselves against rising sea levels and stronger waves, the Maldives have been relying on engineering adaptation measures for years. These include, for example, breakwaters, shoreline reinforcement, and land reclamation or elevation. The study, published in the journal *Scientific Reports*, examines the quantities of materials that might be required for such measures between the years 2000 and 2100. To this end, the research team led by Prof. Simron Singh of the University of Waterloo—who is currently serving as a visiting professor at the University of Augsburg—and Dr. Andrea Thorenz of the Resource Lab at the University of Augsburg is conducting a material stock and material flow analysis. Based on satellite data, publicly available project data on coastal protection measures, and sea-level rise scenarios, the team models various possible developments. Two strategies are examined in particular: the protection of existing coastlines, and land reclamation and the raising of islands, both of which require large quantities of sand, rock, and other construction materials. The results show that technical adaptation measures can provide protection in the short term but generate a high and recurring demand for materials in the long term. For existing coastal protection structures, the study estimates an annual maintenance requirement of approximately 6,400 metric tons of material starting in 2024. By 2100, this requirement will total about 482,000 metric tons. One scenario also shows that maintaining newly reclaimed land alone could require a cumulative total of 1.2 to 1.34 billion metric tons of material by 2100. Existing structures and reclaimed land must be maintained, raised, or expanded if sea levels continue to rise. This can create a cycle in which new materials are constantly needed to keep existing protective measures functional. This perspective is particularly important for small island states because many building materials are not available locally. They must be imported, making these countries dependent on global supply chains, fluctuating prices, and political developments. Sand is also an increasingly critical resource: While sand is not inherently scarce from a geological perspective, overuse, conflicts over its use, and the ecological consequences of extraction can lead to significant problems at the regional level. The study highlights these interconnections and thus provides a basis for better weighing various adaptation pathways. “Climate adaptation is often viewed primarily as a technical or financial challenge. Our study shows that material requirements also play a central role. The idea of securing all threatened coastlines worldwide in the future through land reclamation and other technical interventions reaches natural limits given the enormous resource requirements. Sustainable adaptation strategies must therefore take into account the availability of materials, their long-term consequences, and alternative solutions from the very beginning,” says Dr. Andrea Thorenz of the University of Augsburg. While the Maldives are the focus of the study, the findings are also relevant to other small island states. Many of these countries contribute very little to global greenhouse gas emissions but are particularly hard hit by their consequences. At the same time, they often have limited domestic resources and rely on imports, external financing, and international support for major infrastructure projects. The study thus demonstrates, beyond the specific case of the Maldives, how important it is not to evaluate climate adaptation solely on the basis of whether it provides protection in the short term. Its long-term consequences for resource consumption, import dependencies, the environment, and public finances are also crucial. From the researchers’ perspective, strategies are therefore needed that more closely integrate technical protective measures, local conditions, social impacts, and sustainable resource use. Original publication: tb This research was conducted as part of the Center for Climate Resilience in a subproject of the Green Research Network BRaVE at the University of Augsburg. BRaVE is part of the University of Augsburg’s Green Transformation initiative and is funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts through the university funding agreement. The network brings together research projects focused on biodiversity, resilience, climate adaptation, and sustainable resource use.
A Basis for Better Decisions
Significance Beyond the Maldives
Singh, S.; Linsmaier, S.; Choudhary, C.; Wietschel, L.; Azfa, A.; Wiedenhofer, D.; Mohamed, S.; Thorenz, A. (2026): Material requirements for adapting to climate change in the Maldives. Scientific Reports.Info Box
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