Seasonal Prediction of Mediterranean temperature and precipitation anomalies by statistical model ensembles (already finished)

The intended seasonal predictions of Mediterranean pressure, temperature, and precipitation variations comprise basic information about the probable climatic character over a longer period of time (month to season) and hence differ from forecasting individual atmospheric conditions (as done in weather forecasts). Based on extensive observational data and using different advanced statistical methods, quantitative relationships between Mediterranean climate variables and large-scale predictor fields of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial variables are established in consideration of relevant time lags. In this context, sea surface temperatures and so-called centres of teleconnectivity play a decisive role in particular. The derived statistical models are verified in periods being independent from the model calibration periods. Models which pass the verification procedure are pooled into an ensemble of models. This model ensemble is subsequently used to generate probabilistic predictions of the occurrence of pressure, temperature, and precipitation anomalies in the Mediterranean area from particular parameter configurations in the predictor fields. Furthermore, models are fitted to take into account instationarities in the predictor- predictand- relationships. The application of the seasonal climate forecasts in the scope of adaptation strategies and risk management is allowed for by providing up-to-date forecast information with relevant comments on the internet.