Downscaling of ground-level ozone for Europe

Start date: 2021
End date: ongoing
Funding: Faculty of Medicine, University of Augsburg
Project responsibility on site: Prof. Dr. Elke Hertig

An important research focus of the Chair of Regional Climate Change and Health is the investigation of the interrelationships and effects of ground-level ozone (partly in combination with air temperature extremes) on human health. There are already numerous completed and ongoing projects in this regard [ link].

In order to strengthen the data basis for future research projects in this field, the chair aims at a statistical downscaling of ground-level ozone, which also allows assessments until the end of the 21st century under climate change.

For this purpose, data from more than 700 European ozone monitoring stations from the European Air Quality Portal are available. Using statistical downscaling methods (e. g. lasso regression), a model will be built for each of the stations that links atmospheric conditions with ground-level ozone concentrations. Target variables (predictands) are the daily maximum 8-hour mean and the daily maximum 1-hour ozone values. The atmospheric predictors air temperature, humidity, and wind are taken from the ERA5 reanalysis. In addition, the monthly ozone values from the CAMS global reanalysis will be included as predictors.

To realize the projection of future ozone concentrations, a multi-model ensemble from climate model data of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is used, which includes an interactive representation of the atmospheric chemistry. Downscaled ozone projections for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 will be calculated for two different scenarios (ssp245 and ssp370). The climate model data, before being applied in the downscaling models, will be subjected to univariate or multivariate bias correction (quantile delta mapping).

The projected ozone data will serve as a basis for the working group in further Europe-wide studies, including epidemiological exposure-impact studies with risk assessments for mortality, morbidity or in relation to specific diseases, such as for instance myocardial infarction frequencies.

Project responsibility:

Prof. Dr. Elke Hertig, Regional Climate Change and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Augsburg

Published results:

Hertig, E., Jahn, S., & Kaspar-Ott, I. (2023). Future local ground-level ozone in the European area from statistical downscaling projections considering climate and emission changes. Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003317. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003317